- Money Morning Australia

US Dollar Rallies. Readies for a Fall


Written on 26 November 2008 by Gabriel Andre

US Dollar Rallies.  Readies for a Fall

The US Dollar Index (USDX) has been now bouncing back by more than 18% since the bottom posted at mid-July. This low level was identified as the second leg of a “double-bottom” pattern which is a strong basis for a rebound (see on the daily chart). This is what happened and now the Dollar Index has already retraced 23.6% of the long-term bearish trend started in July 2001 and ended then at mid-July 2008.


Click To Enlarge

This long-term bearish trend (between points A and B on the weekly chart) drove the Dollar Index roughly from 125 to 72 therefore a loss in value of more than 42%. On the medium-term, the target is likely to be the resistance line plot just below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. It’s a previous high level where a “double-top” occurred (points C and D) that generated the second phase of the bearish trend, between 2006 and July 2008.

On the short-term, let’s use a system based a on multi-dimension oscillator to anticipate the price action. We use the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO).


Click To Enlarge

The CMO can be used to measure several conditions.

Overbought/oversold: the primary method of interpreting the CMO is looking for extreme overbought and oversold conditions. As a general rule, overbought levels are quantified at +50 and the oversold levels at -50. At +50, up-day momentum is three times the down-day momentum. Likewise, at -50, down-day momentum is three times the up-day momentum. Basically, these levels correspond to the 70/30 levels on the RSI indicator.

Trendiness: the CMO can also be used to measure the degree to which a security is trending. The higher the CMO, the stronger the trend. Low values of the CMO show a security in a sideways trading range.

Divergence: as is often done with other momentum indicators, divergences occur when the indicator does not confirm new highs or new lows posted by the price action.

Other: although not specifically dedicated to patterns recognition, the CMO may be also used to identify chart formations, failure swings, and support/resistance levels.

If we establish overbought/oversold entry and exit rules by plotting a moving average trigger line on the CMO, therefore alerts are triggered when the CMO crosses its 9-period moving average after being in an overbought or oversold condition.

It’s a short-term basic system that typically well identifies inflexion points.



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