Why You Should Cut Back on Your Sugar Intake

by Gabriel Andre on 28 July 2009

Sugar is one of the commodities currently booming. The chart is clear as the recent rate of rise is impressive and that the price objective for the bulls seems to be evident.

Sugar prices have bounced by 56% since the beginning of the year, jumping from $11.80 to $18.43 (per pound, on the New York Board of Trade).

The current bullish move is actually the combination of three consecutive waves followed by consolidation periods. On the chart, those waves are symbolized by the green segments whereas the consolidation phases occurred in the blue squares. It has been a regular but powerful rise and it is likely now that the traders involved in this move will want to push it higher.

Where exactly? Well, it seems that the target should be the previous high level posted in early February 2006, when the highest closing price was $19.30 (point A on the chart). The highest point posted in intraday session was $19.73, which also might be a price objective. Anyway it is expected that a lot of selling interests should appear between $19 and $20. The bears should indeed take the opportunity of a “double top” chartist pattern to initiate a correction after such a rise and to eventually create a trend reversal.

A further jump of 5 or 6% is therefore probable from the current levels, followed by a consolidation and retracement.
Because the bullish trend is made of three consecutive waves with consolidation periods between them, it means that the rise has not driven the price into extreme overbought area. Even many of the technical indicators are reaching high values, they do not suggest that Sugar is currently excessively purchased.

If the price action breaks above $20, then it will move into almost unknown territory (actually sugar prices were much higher back in 1979 and 1980). But the more realistic scenario should see a correction towards $18, $16 and potentially to $14.75, the main support level. This level is a previous high (point B) that became a new low (point C) and was the starting point of the most recent bullish wave.

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{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }

1 Junior Mogambo Ranger July 31, 2009 at 7:14 pm

“Sugar prices have bounced by 56% since the beginning of the year, jumping from $11.80 to $18.43 (per pound, on the New York Board of Trade).”

$18.43 for a pound of sugar!
We are all doomed!!!

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