Comments on: The Beginning of the Housing Crash?

By: Rusty

Rusty — Thu, 17 Jun 2010 10:00:19 +0000

Nice little resource thanks guys – seemed to work for me!

By: Sandra

Sandra — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 23:29:39 +0000

Daniel (Stingray) Birke -

you’re an imbecile!

By: PuntPal

PuntPal — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 04:53:40 +0000

Found it cb – discussion in other thread

By: cb

cb — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 01:44:45 +0000

PuntPal – I checked but the site is not functioning properly at the moment. The graph was part of Alan Kohler’s nightly Finance Report on the ABC, but the front page always updates the link to the latest report out, so we would need to try to find out if there is a way to access historical reports. I will try again later. I would love to be able to actually locate the chart all by itself, because the one I have seen simply appeared as part of the video, which you have to pause for a better look. Anyhow, since it was the 19 October report, we would have to find a way of accessing it. I seem to remember that the chart itself was produced by the ABS and some other body, so it could well exist independently somewhere. Maybe one of our more erudite and net savvy members will come to the rescue.

Everybody: HELP!!!!

By: PuntPal

PuntPal — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 21:56:09 +0000

Couldnt find the housing graph cb – can you email the actual link to the graph because I spent a while looking. That kind of long range data would be out there. I just dont have time to find it

By: etch

etch — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 11:10:15 +0000

no i am not …i have nothing to hide ……..sorry to disappoint YOU

By: cb

cb — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:23:25 +0000

Lol, etch, now I am tempted to ask you, also: Are you taking some chemical substances? hahahaaa

By: etch

etch — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:01:16 +0000

“”"”"”"Can someone please explain where all this money is coming from to keep pushing prices up? Excess liquidity (i.e. inflation)? Wage growth (not that I’ve heard)? Foreign investors (some suggest)?

Last time I checked wages growth was not 10% / year – so where is this money coming from, and / or which part of the economy is this being diverted from? “”"”"”"”"”"”"”

i reckon its “BLACK MONEY ” being laundered from the drug trade

anyway its gotten to the mega greed stage in australia with these house prices to the point it will get crashed & burned

By: cb

cb — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 09:35:06 +0000

Thanks Jimbo James. That is very interesting. I does indeed that the overall landscape is fragmented, and that some places may well be ripe for correction. Mind you, if suburbs as favourably located as the ones you mention, it will not take too long for any overflow of unsatisfied demand to make its way across and fill the present hiatus quickly, as soon as there is a noticeable correction. That would require, however, that other areas of the city do indeed have the requisite surplus demand, and are not similarly flooded with fresh supply.

By: jimbo james

jimbo james — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 08:30:02 +0000

cb,

I’m with you on the major challenges in trying to read the state of the market and industry at present. We keep hearing about a housing shortage but aspects of my research and market exposure suggest otherwise. One of the areas in which I’ve invested and undertaken developments is to the west of Melbourne (Point Cook, Tarneit etc). These suburbs have grown exponentially over the last 10 years and have been considered ‘good bets’ with new infrastructure on the way and their proximity to the city (compared to similar developments in the SE). But in researching new prospects over the last 12 months, my gut feeling was there was an oversupply. I recently updated my data and the results were disturbing. Tarneit is showing a rental vacancy rate of nearly 13% and Point Cook 7%. The discounting that is occuring to attract tenants is bordering suicidal (see Refind.com.au). Increasing the supply out there would be foolish.

What we naturally have is a high level of fragmentation. I’m sure there are many suburbs across the country with vacancy rates below the healthy 3%. Many of Melbourne’s are above. Whilst a good number of people want a family home within a 5km ring of their capital CBD, this is no longer possible and short of building more high density apartments, there is no other solution in these areas. The big question I have is whether the market will ever become elastic enough to encourage people away from the boom areas? With the employment, entertainment, transport, cafe etc etc hubs all centred in CBDs they’ll be doing it under great duress!