Comments on: How the Stimulus Destroyed 77,000 Manufacturing Jobs

By: cb

cb — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 16:38:14 +0000

etch – but if we are going to have a housing crash, then they are going to be burned and will lose their shirts to us, who will buy our houses back from them, right? Sounds like a way to make money: Sell high, Buy low. But I wonder how many of the bears here believe enough in this story to take that gamble.

By: etch

etch — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 12:31:38 +0000

When a chinese sells an asset they buy a more expensive asset.
ALSO We sell china heaps of raw commodoties as well as services such as tourism / education. we use the proceeds of this to buy t.v’s /toys / and junk that is made in china.
When China sells finished goods to us, they use the money to buy aus assets e.g. YOUR HOUSE. they do not buy aus junk.
Have a look at that before you complain. oh and buy more junk please, the chinese want more of your assets

By: etch

etch — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 11:50:39 +0000

chinnees r buying all props up with their cheap money 1% loan

people in oz saying “r those suckers working for 50 cents an hour”
we got it so good here ”

now the they r snapping 1.5mill$ houses up,

its gone full circle

By: cb

cb — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 11:24:56 +0000

Okay, PuntPal. Ten more months to go. But a 20% drop from current level will represent less than 10% drop from the level at which Sayce started glooming and dooming. And I do not think that a 10% pullback should qualify him for having been proven right. I would say that we would need a 30% pullback from current levels to give him the honours.

Also, we should agree that there should be no excuses for miscalculating this or that. Manipulation and boondoogles and election bribes are the orders of the day, and any prognosticator who cannot factor them in, should just cop it sweet.

Do we agree?

By: PuntPal

PuntPal — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 04:27:59 +0000

I think you will find cb that Sayce said the crash is very very soon. He obviously is not going to say Feb-April 2010 or something like that, because he has seen the way the spruikers have tried to use Keen’s wrong bet to discredit him.

Sayce is smart enough to lock himself in to a date and specific %.

Lets be honest, if by end or 2010 there is crash or correction of signigance (-20% or more) then Sayce is proven right.

If this hasnt occured by the end of 2010, then Sayce would be struggling to argue he is still right on this matter.

By: cb

cb — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 00:04:27 +0000

Sandra – I do sympathise with that view. To be sure, on the face of it, it sounds right and incontrovertible in theory. Alas, in the real world you can lost your shirt by acting on the financial advice of cock sure prognosticators, no matter how compelling you may find their views. The markets can defy logic, and can be manipulated for much longer than any of us can stay solvent. I have learned that lesson many times over, and mostly the hard way, and I have the scars on my balance sheet to prove it.

Consequently, I find prognosticators like Bonner, Danning and Sayce, whose prognostications can be out by a decade or more, to be useless for most practical purposes. Sayce, for example, refuses to put a date by which property prices are going to crash, or a percentage figure by which they are going to crash. And even if his predictions of a major meltdown, of say 40% or 50% come true ten years or even five or six years down the track from the top, which could be 20 – 30 percent higher than where we are at the moment, then BiG DeaL.

We are already up more than 10% over the past 12 months or so, so we would have to have at least a 30% correction from here to make his glooming alarmism proved by a 20% drop from a year ago. There is so much uncertainty in the market, and so much meddling and manipulating, that nobody really knows what is going to happen and within what time frame. Those who pretend otherwise are fooling themselves and everyone who listens to them and take their words as written gospel.

Alas, by nature, we seem programmed to have, and live by, and sometimes even die by, our convictions. I am at a point where I consider mine to be as good and as useless as anybody else’s, so I might as well stick to my own. And one of those convictions I have is that, unless you are a privileged insider, you gotta take your chance. It is only the house, and those in cahoots with the house that will always win, and worse, they win at your expense.

By: Sandra

Sandra — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 11:09:04 +0000

CB @ 42:
This series of videos is indeed enlightening.
Also makes you wonder how anybody here could possible question the fact that property here in Australia is not in an unsustainable bubble??!!

No wonder Sayce proclaims that he is dead certain that the real estate market is going to suffer a major downward price correction. It’s kinda like predicting that if you throw a cup out of your 10th story apartment window that it WILL drop down to the street. it’s a no brainer! DUH!

By: etch

etch — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 09:13:34 +0000

‘the fianancial wheel has over-run its self ,to the point of affecting even by-standers”

if or this frenzied pace continues of this BS BOOM .
austerity will be introduced which will affect more than just grand-parents
EVERY-ONE i meet talks ABOUT PROPERTY VALUES GOING UP.
everyones on the bandwagon

as they say

“when the bellboy starts talking shares or property,thats the time to GET OUT”

its totally amazing pet dogs havent “talking” woofing ,about the value of their KENNELS going up in value also .

this madness of JUST PURE GREED , will phuccc over & hurt everyone in australia ,involved or not.
people have forgotten 1990 recession..i havnt,,

banks will be putting up interest rates & CRASHIO IT WILL GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((

By: Nick

Nick — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 08:01:55 +0000

I have been speaking with my friendly local butcher. He has informed me that meat will be imported as of March. We are told on TV adds to go vegetarian so as to reduce the amount of cattle in Australia that contribute to “global warming”. So where is this meat imported from? They must have a new breed of cattle that only sucks air in and nothing goes out!!
I also heard on the news that 1500 jobs will be lost if the govt goes ahead with allowing imported toilet paper ( funny how it all revolves around “scatology”…another Greek word) into Aust from Indonesia at half the price.
Builders I know have long been complaining of Chinese owned development companies bringing in shoddy Chinese workers, who by the way live on the construction sites and work for a pittance, making it virtually impossible to compete against.
These are just a small amount of examples of standard jobs being replaced by cheap labour, whether directly or via imported goods. How can we expect wages to have a remote chance of increasing when the trend is to reduce wages? How can this then flow over to house prices increasing? Am I to believe that as wages at best stay put and at worse fall, house prices and rents will increase? If wages increase then more jobs will go overseas, hence, wages fall to zero as people lose their jobs. Am I still to believe that house prices will rise under this scenario?
I have recently returned from abroad (UK, Europe & US). What I have seen there, what I have seen from the “ordinary folk” and businesses here in Aust and what I been hearing of late about Aust real estate clearly defies logic, to put it mildly.

By: Sandra

Sandra — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 07:45:26 +0000

Drew @ 39-
lol – yeh, but I guess Ozzies are a little ’slower’ than others?
We’re somehow ‘different’. what a croc!