Why Australia isn’t so Different to Greece

Why Australia isn’t so Different to Greece

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Your editor is in Australian Small-Cap Investigator mode again this morning, so we may be brief with today’s Money Morning – unless we get carried away…

“Oh stop grumbling and just hand over the money.” That’s in effect what the German government is being told to do with its taxpayer euros.

According to the Associated Press (AP):

“A 45 billion euros ($A64.45 billion) bailout package from other eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should see Greece through its borrowing needs for this year. But the bailout is complicated by German grumbling, which continued on Monday, about the burden of the bailout on its own finances.”

Do you know what, if your editor was German we think we’d grumble a bit too. In fact if we were German we’d tell the Greeks to stick a Banane^ up their Kokospalme.*

We’ve long thought the Euro currency was doomed to failure. Whether the debts piled up by Greece and other Eurozone countries is enough to cause its collapse is another matter.

But one day – probably sooner rather than later – it will fail. Just like all fiat currencies are destined to collapse.

For an indication of how bad things have gotten in Greece you need look no further than current Greek interest rates and compare them to German interest rates.

First take a look at this chart from Bloomberg:

Hell-enic Bonds

 

 

The worst thing is, that yield is only as of close of business on Friday. In overnight trade the interest rate on the 2-year bond increased to over 13%. A full three percentage point increase on Friday’s rate.

Make no mistake, that’s an absolutely massive move.

And as you can also see from the chart above, the yield has more than doubled during the past month alone.

But what this shows is that if you mess around with debt and interest rates it’ll eventually bit you on the bum.

It shows you that the attempts to manipulate interest rates by central bankers are doomed to fail. Because while the Greek government should hang its head in shame for criminally burdening its citizens with debt, the central bankers are equally culpable for drugging them up on cheap money.

Let me show you an example. Below is a chart for the same 2-year Greek bonds, except it’s showing the rolling yield going back five years:

Too low for too long

 

 

And remember, this chart only goes up to last Friday. Based on the prices from overnight, the current yield would be where I’ve placed the big red blob on the chart.

Now, we won’t claim to be an expert on Greek government debt. But the reaction of the bond market tells you what the problem is.

It’s telling you that the government has over-exposed itself to debt over a long period and that investors are no longer willing to accept a yield of between 2% and 5% that they were prepared to accept for the previous four years and eight months.

Importantly, the problems in Greece aren’t something that developed overnight. The Greek government didn’t change from an Ebenezer Scrooge type miser at the beginning of this year to a Paris Hilton style spendaholic yesterday.

The markets have obviously known about the Greek debt for some time. It’s only now that the realisation has dawned on investors that there are perhaps better places to stick their money…

Hence why the Germans are “grumbling” over sending some of their hard-earned southbound to the Mediterranean.

This is the sort of event the saps in the mainstream insist could never happen in Australia or the US. They’re mistaken.

You see, as our Slipstream Trader editor Murray Dawes wrote in Money Morning yesterday:

“I really believe that you can never succeed in the markets long term if you’re not constantly aware of the effect your psychology has on your results.”

A large part of the reason why investors are fleeing Greek bonds is psychology. Sure there are some mug punters that are prepared to buy Greek debt on a 13% yield, but that yield shows you just how risky the punters believe it is.

The main role of interest rates is to provide a visible price of money, another role is to indicate the supply and demand for money, and finally it provides an indicator on the relative risk of money and other investments.

To use an example. While the Greek 2-year bond is trading at a yield of over 13%, the German 2-year bund has a yield of just 0.88%. That’s a spread of over twelve percentage points!

The interest rate is now telling investors that German debt is low risk and Greek debt is super high risk.

Of course it’s all relative. And you shouldn’t forget that the German rate has been manipulated much lower than it otherwise would be by the European Central Bank. But you get the point.

Keeping interest rates low gives the false impression that no one needs to save. Low interest rates over the previous four years gave the market and investors the false signal that there is already enough saving and therefore there’s no need save.

The low interest rates also made the incentive to save a lot less too, even if they were inclined to.

So, what do governments and individuals do? They heed the signals from the interest rates and spend. Only it turns out that the signals were false. The signals were like faulty traffic lights stuck on green in all directions.

Investors were happy to drive through them and luckily they missed the carnage. But eventually their luck ran out and they’ve run head on into a semi-trailer.

Which is what makes headlines such as this sent in by Money Morning reader Karl all the more worrying: “Lifting rates will not stem rising market.”

The article opens with, “SOMEWHERE amid the fuzzy logic that drives the Reserve Bank’s interest rate policy is the notion we have a housing price bubble and that raising interest rates will deflate it.”

Sadly, in the short term the writer Terry Ryder is probably right. For a time investors and people will ignore higher interest rates because they assume it to be a sign of a positive economy. But taking that attitude is no different to what’s happened to the Greeks.

Whichever way you look at it, it’s a manipulation of interest rates. And despite the fact that interest rates are rising you shouldn’t forget that they are being kept much lower than the free market would otherwise have set them.

Rising interest rates should mean that it’s time to stop spending and it’s time to save. However, because of the entrenched idea that rising interest rates means a positive economy, individuals have been brainwashed by the mainstream commentators into believing that higher interest rates is also a good time to borrow and spend.

But don’t forget, despite Australian interest rates being higher than the official cash rate in other economies, they are still being kept artificially low.

And because the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is keeping rates low, it’s masking asset bubbles and convincing investors and individuals that more can be borrowed – especially as rates are below ‘normal.’

Just as the Greeks were convinced to borrow more when their interest rates were kept artificially low.

The five-year chart above provides a perfect example of how a bubble can only be suppressed for so long before it eventually bursts.

It may not look like a bubble bursting because the chart shows the yield going up. But just remember, the higher the yield the higher the risk. And also remember that bond prices react inversely to bond yields.

So if you were to see the price of bonds as opposed to the yield it would look something like what we’ve magically created using the expensive software package known as – hehem – Microsoft Paint:

Kerrrrunch!

 

 

You can see the bubble being artificially expanded by low interest rates, reaching a crescendo in late 2009.

But then the market reached a tipping point if you like. Investor psychology took over. It begins where one by one investors start to dislike the risk profile of a particular asset class.

Eventually one by one becomes ten by ten, then one hundred by one hundred, until the flood of investors exiting an asset is unstoppable.

You’ve seen that for yourself in the stock market.

And now you’re seeing it with Greek government bonds.

There’s no reason why this can’t and won’t happen in the UK, the US, or more troublingly in China.

And there’s absolutely no reason why it won’t happen to Australia’s asset bubbles either.

Cheers,
Kris.

^ Banana
* Coconut tree

Kris Sayce

Kris Sayce

Publisher and Investment Director at Port Phillip Publishing

Kris is never one to pull punches when discussing market developments and economic events that can affect your wealth. He’ll take anyone to task — banks, governments, big business — if he thinks they’re trying to pull a fast one with your money. Kris is also the editor of Tactical Wealth, and Microcap Trader — where he reveals the best opportunities he’s discovered in the markets. If you’d like to more about Kris’ financial world view and investing philosophy then join him on Google+. It’s where he shares investment insight, commentary and ideas that he can’t always fit into his regular Money Morning essays.
Kris Sayce is the Publisher and Investment Director of Australia’s biggest circulation daily financial email, Money Morning Australia.Kris is a fully accredited advisor in shares, options, warrants and foreign-exchange investments.

Kris has close to twenty years’ experience in analysing stocks. He began his career in the biggest wasp’s nest in the financial world — the city of London — as a finance broker back in 1995.

It’s there where he got his ‘baptism of fire’ into the financial markets, specialising in small-cap stock analysis on London’s Alternative Investment Market. This covered everything from Kazakhstani gold miners to toy train companies.After moving to Australia, Kris spent several years at a leading Australian wealth-management company. However he began to realise the finance and brokerage industry was more interested in lining its own pockets with fat fees, commissions and perks —rather than genuinely helping out the private investors they were supposed to be ‘working’ for.

So in 2005 Kris started writing for Port Phillip Publishing — a company which was more attuned to his investment outlook.

Initially he began writing for the Daily Reckoning Australia— but eventually, took over Money Morning. It’s now read by over 55,000 subscribers each day.

Kris will take anyone to task — banks, governments, big business — if he thinks they’re trying to pull a fast one with your money! Whether you agree with him or not, you’ll find his common-sense, thought-provoking arguments well worth a read.

To have his investment insights delivered straight to your inbox each day, take out a free subscription to Money Morning here.

Kris is also the editor of Tactical Wealth and Microcap Trader where he reveals the best opportunities he’s discovered in the markets that you could profit from. If you’d like to learn about the latest opportunity Kris has uncovered, take a 30-day trial of Tactical Wealth here or Microcap Trader here.

Official websites and financial e-letters Kris writes for:

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38 Comments on "Why Australia isn’t so Different to Greece"

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cb
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cb
6 years 7 months ago

This piece of writing is as good as any in taking the cake for its simple-minded, shallow analysis. Greece is a 10 year demolition job by robber barrons who want to loot the country, and demolish the Euro at the same time, so that it does not become a competing world reserve currency. Where is this part of the analysis? No amount of microdescription of how a bullet killed Henry will account for the fact that George drew his gun and pulled the trigger.
Helloo0oooo …………..

Nick
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Nick
6 years 7 months ago

here’s another one who thinks he is doing “Gods work”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRTB-J2-JLA&feature=youtube_gdata

Nick
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Nick
6 years 7 months ago

ahh!! guns again cb…Yeah Kris, how about a little more about the ones who pulled the trigger rather than the ones who caught the bullet?? hmmm??
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deDDwBj0ZlQ&feature=youtube_gdata

andy dufresne
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andy dufresne
6 years 7 months ago

Anything’s possible I suppose. A snapshot of 10 year bond yields taken about a fortnight ago sees us uncomfortably close to the PIIGS….

Ten year government bond yields:

Greece 7.29%
New Zealand 6.02%
Australia 5.83%
Ireland 4.50%
Portugal 4.40%
UK 4.02%
Italy 3.89%
US 3.88%
Spain 3.87%
Norway 3.77%
Canada 3.67%
France 3.44%
Germany 3.13%
Switzerland 1.93%
Japan 1.40%

cb
Guest
cb
6 years 7 months ago

Ah, Nick, Bill Gates is such a d!ckhead, honestly … He seems to be talking about lowering CO2 levels to zero. WTF !!!! Has this guy any idea? Does he know, for example, that at about half of current concentration levels plant life would largely go extinct? Algae and mosses, perhaps, might survive, but not trees, or crop plants. Gaaaaawd, who else is doing God’s work???

GB
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GB
6 years 7 months ago

cb – you thoughts on Greece could actually be incorrect

cb
Guest
cb
6 years 7 months ago

GB – will you tell us more? From everything I have read, nothing comes close to explaining what is happening in the Eurozone like Max Keiser does. I don’t agree with Keiser on everything. For example, he is sold on the CO2 pollution idea, and I am clearly not, but as far as financial matters go, he is the one, along with Celente and a few others, that I have come to respect.

GB
Guest
GB
6 years 7 months ago
thats fine cb but it doesn’t mean Keiser is right. Another cause (not saying this is the correct one) is Greece like the rest of the western world went insane and increased debt to dangerous levels. Now that they are experiences a downturn Greece is finding it difficult to pay interest because they are no longer getting the revenues they were before. Because they cant get higher revenues, through increased growth or exports, or print money to cover interest payments people believe the level of risk to lend to Greece has increased and so they demand a higher return on… Read more »
Nick
Guest
Nick
6 years 7 months ago

Just when you thought Copenhagen was a “dud” in achieving its agenda of one world government. We may have set that one aside, but “they” haven’t.
http://noworldsystem.com/2010/04/26/bank-tax-a-major-step-toward-world-government/

cb
Guest
cb
6 years 7 months ago
GB – No, it does not mean either that he is right, or that he has six toes on his right foot. What are you saying? My argument is that, given all the available evidence, the most plausible and compelling explanations are by reference to conciously and carefully laid plans by certain interests, who managed to lure and trap gullible and corrupt Greek politicians and successive Greek governments into taking on more and more insane and unpayable debt, and signing over the country’s choicest income producing assets for the privilege of being able to hide and continue to lie to… Read more »
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