What is the Future of the RSPT under Prime Minister Gillard?

What is the Future of the RSPT under Prime Minister Gillard?

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Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedy. ~Ernest Benn

As your regular editor Kris Sayce mentioned, I recently went to Africa ‘to kick some rocks’. I ‘kicked some rocks’ in a number of mining projects in South Africa and Botswana, and got a good feel for their futures, as well the logistical environment that the companies are working in.

My original return was delayed as I missed my flight. There had been a cops n’ robbers style shoot-out on the freeway to the airport, so the traffic was grid-locked for twenty kilometres. When I finally did step back onto Australian land, it was to the news that that land was now being managed by Prime Minister Gillard (PMG)!

This brought to mind another quote: ‘A week is a long time in politics’, which I’m sure is what Kevin Rudd is thinking right now. Either that or wondering at what time in the afternoon it is ok to pour the first scotch of the day when you are no longer running the country.

As editor of Diggers and Drillers, The first thing I thought was:

‘What does this mean for the future of the RSPT?’

So far we have had little to go on from Gillard, other than an ambiguous pledge to open the doors to negotiations on the RSPT.

The industry will need much more than that from Gillard before it takes any heat off the government. Seeing as the tax in its current form was the death-blow sending Rudd to the back benches with a face like vinegar, it would serve Gillard’s popularity polls well to clarify what the plan is, and pronto.

Would these negotiations take place pre-election? A kind smile and vague commitments beforehand are not going to cut the mustard. The mining industry has given her a moment’s reprieve, but will be as ruthless as they were with Rudd unless given a good reason to back off.

Is the Prime Minister even considering starting again from scratch on a foundation of extensive consultations, as per the shaping and introduction of the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax?

This would be the best possible outcome for all involved, but with the tax’s mad architect Wayne Swan now sitting in the co-pilot’s seat, it is probably just a tenuous dream.

If it came down to negotiating terms and conditions in an attempt to remodel this garden-shed-DIY-grade mess into something workable, there are three main points to haggle over.

Does it apply to projects already operating? If so, then it is effectively moving the goal posts on investment decisions made years or even decades ago. Imagine how you would feel if ten years into your mortgage, the bank completely rewrote its terms?

As for the scale of the tax, the threshold rate of 6% has to change. The weighted average cost of capital (the rate miners pay for money) is more like double that. So as long as there is such a gap between the two rates, miners would be bleeding money.

Then the 40% rate of the RSPT clearly needs to be dialled back to something less ridiculous as well.

I went to the Melbourne Mining Club’s Tax Forum last week, and Chris Richardson, the Director of Access Economics, pointed out that the net effect of all of this for shareholders is an effective tax rate on mining stocks as high as 67.9%.

At the same event, The CEO of the Minerals Council of Australia, Mitch Hooke, said that he was optimistic in regards to Gillard’s more consultative tone.

I will need something more tangible than optimism before I start recommending any of the many great mining projects based in Australia for my Diggers and Drillers readers again. For now, nearly everything is currently offshore and doing well for it.

Last night I watched Swan speak on the excellent ABC news after the G20 summit. He re-affirmed my offshore strategy for me. He said:

“Advanced economies have committed to at least halve deficits by 2013. Now of course, Australia will be returning to surplus by 2013,”

What gave me the chills is that following the government’s calculations, without some other tax or spending cuts, the only way in which this return to surplus is possible at the moment is if the RSPT goes ahead in its current form, adding $3 billion in revenue in 2012-2013. Gillard has also stated she is committed to this budget target.

So whilst Gillard is waving an olive branch in the air with one hand, it looks like her other hand is pointing at the miners, and flipping them the bird.

Make no mistake. Nothing is resolved at the moment. We are just moving into the second act of this RSPT saga.

Stay tuned.

Dr. Alex Cowie
For Money Morning Australia

 

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36 Comments on "What is the Future of the RSPT under Prime Minister Gillard?"

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peter fraser
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6 years 5 months ago

What is the Future of Prime Minister Gillard under the RSPT?

cb
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cb
6 years 5 months ago

That is an equally good question, PF. My hunch is that if she can push it through before or after Labor is re-elected, she will be just fine. Most of the danger for her lies, not in the RSPT itself, but in losing the election because of the argy-bargy over it. I am yet to read the article, but.

cb
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cb
6 years 5 months ago

The most informative part of this article is the hint it gives as to the conditions under which miners spend/waste investors money on overseas projects, such as those in Africa. More and more of the evidence suggestes that it is not so super trying to avoid a domestic RSPT through these threatened means. If Gillard sees through the bluff and is able to stand her ground on the RSPT, one day this nation is going to thank her for it – provided that she survives long enough to implement the damn thing.

Nick
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Nick
6 years 5 months ago
Nick
Guest
Nick
6 years 5 months ago

I wonder if Gillard knew about this? Keep an eye out for a “black swan”!

http://theintelhub.com/2010/06/28/7432/

michael francis
Guest
6 years 5 months ago

Australians should mine it, smelt it, forge it then export it. That’s where our future is and f–k flipping houses.

Nick
Guest
Nick
6 years 5 months ago

MF…you can add “technology” to that list. We have the brains, we have the people. That is true “currency”.
A house produces nothing but fond memories.

cb
Guest
cb
6 years 5 months ago

Abby – If you should ever lose your mind and decide to enter politics, you can count on my vote.

cb
Guest
cb
6 years 5 months ago

Abby – But I should also make it clear that the free passes and lunches our politicians are giving big business and special interest groups at taxpayers’s expense is no lesser drain, or threat, for our economic wellbeing. Can you see that?

OREO-ruddxpin-BASHER-BUMMER
Guest
OREO-ruddxpin-BASHER-BUMMER
6 years 5 months ago

Obama DOCTRINE: Congress Just Declared Preemptive WAR on Iran
June 28, 2010 by NotForSale2NWO

http://theintelhub.com/2010/06/28/obama-doctrine-congress-just-declared-preemptive-war-on-iran/

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