- Money Morning Australia

Tag Archive | "Google shares"

Could Google’s Share Price Signal a Real Economic Recovery?

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Could Google’s Share Price Signal a Real Economic Recovery?

Posted on 21 October 2013 by Kris Sayce

How do you fancy paying US$1,011 for just one share?

If that’s your bag you may want to think about having a flutter on Google [NASDAQ: GOOG]. It closed at that price on Friday in the US. It was up 13.8% for the day.

Of course, at US$1,011 Google has a long way to go before it catches up with Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway [NYSE: BRK/A], which ended the day on Friday at US$175,400 per share.

But Google’s whopping share price is only part of the story. The most important part is the reason behind Google’s big price rise on Friday – it could mean the phoney economic recovery is stronger than we think…

Let’s make one thing clear. We’re still copping flak from folks who think we don’t get what’s going on in the big economic picture.

Well, we’ll say it again: we do get it. That’s why we call it a phoney recovery. But we also get it that regardless of what’s happening on the macro-economic and political front, stocks are still going up.

Just look at Google. Just look at the S&P/ASX 200. This year they are up 44.5% and 13.9% respectively.

You’ve got to ask yourself, do you want to sit and gloat and say things are a mess and not make money? Or do you want to acknowledge things are a mess and give yourself a chance to make a lot of cash on stocks?

You know our answer. What’s yours?

What Bad Economy?

One of the most economically sensitive sectors is the advertising sector. When the economy looks as though it may be going downhill, companies tend to cut back on advertising costs.

They do that because they figure if consumers are keeping their hands in their pockets there’s no point spending money on advertising. Now, you can argue the merit of that all you like, but it’s a fact.

Naturally, some businesses will maintain their ad spending. They see it as an opportunity to grab market share from the competition. But even so, for the advertising industry as a whole, a poor outlook means lower revenues and lower profits.

And that’s exactly where the economy is now, right? That’s the thing. If you look at Google’s revenue and profit numbers you’ll see that’s far from being the truth. That’s why the stock gained 13.8% on Friday to US$1,011.41.

In the September 2012 quarter (US companies report results quarterly, unlike Aussie companies who report results half-yearly) Google brought in revenue of US$13.3 billion and profit of US$2.2 billion.

In the just-released September 2013 quarter Google brought in US$14.9 billion in revenue and profit of US$3 billion.

In percentage terms that’s a revenue increase of 12% and a profit increase of 36%. So much for an economic slowdown. If we measure the strength of the economic outlook on the willingness of firms to spend on advertising, then this is a good sign.

Now, we know the September quarter doesn’t include most of the potential negative impact of the US government shutdown. By ‘negative impact’ we mean the possibility that companies were so worried about it that they pulled back on ad campaigns.

We won’t find out that until early next year when Google reports its December quarter numbers.

More Reason to Buy Stocks

But that’s for then. For now, regardless of gripes about the US budget and debt ceiling you can’t ignore the fact that the US S&P 500 is at a record high. The NASDAQ index is at its highest point since it crashed in 2000.

And the Aussie index is on the verge of surging towards our near-term target of 6,000 points by the end of this year.

On top of that, Google’s results confirm we were right to take a punt on economically sensitive stocks.

In November last year we tipped two Aussie media plays. They had both taken a beating during the previous three years. But we bet that most of the worst was over.

If we were wrong then it was a speculative play anyway. Speculators know that they shouldn’t invest more than they can afford to lose. But if it paid off then over time it could result in some pretty big gains.

It’s an idea we’ve stuck with over the past 11 months despite the negativity in the mainstream about the economic outlook. In fact, we believe in the story so much that in the current issue of Australian Small-Cap Investigator we’ve tipped another stock, only this one has a direct involvement in the advertising sector.

If things pan out as we expect then we’re looking at a big triple-digit percentage gain. But as we say, it’s a speculative punt. That’s true with all small-cap stocks. But with Google’s record results showing that advertisers are prepared to spend, we’re confident this is the right time to buy into this economically sensitive industry…

…And we’re equally confident that not only does this spell good news for advertisers, but it should spell good news for the rest of the Aussie stock market too.

If the news keeps going this way, more good news for stocks is on the way.

Cheers,
Kris+

From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

Special Report: UNAVOIDABLE: Australia’s First Recession in 22 Years

Join Money Morning on Google+

Comments (0)

Why You Should Stay Away From Facebook Shares

Tags: , , , , , ,

Why You Should Stay Away From Facebook Shares

Posted on 24 August 2012 by MoneyMorning

High profile flops don’t come much bigger than the flotation of website Facebook NASDAQ: FB. At its peak in the immediate aftermath of  the Facebbok IPO, it was trading at $45. At the moment, it trades at just under $20, less than half this level.

Continue Reading

Comments Off

Your Shares Made Triple Digit Gains… Do You Cash In or Wait a Little Longer?

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Your Shares Made Triple Digit Gains… Do You Cash In or Wait a Little Longer?

Posted on 27 March 2012 by Shae Smith

Have a good look at the charts below.

Stock A)

Stock A
Click here to enlarge

Source: Google Finance


Stock B)

Stock B
Click here to enlarge

Source: Google Finance


Both are technology stocks listed on the NASDAQ in the 1980s. And both companies saw their stock price dive more than a third in the dot-com crash.

Continue Reading

Comments (3)

Facebook Shares – Notice for Mad Punters: Buy This Stock

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Facebook Shares – Notice for Mad Punters: Buy This Stock

Posted on 03 February 2012 by Kris Sayce

Whatever you think of Facebook (our old pal, Dan Denning says Facebook “diminishes the quality of your thought…”) there’s no arguing it’s a great example of free market entrepreneurialism.

For an eight year old company, it has come a long way.

According to the Form S-1 filed with the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission, Facebook made a USD$1 billion profit in 2011. That’s the third year of profits in a row. It made USD$229 million in 2009 and USD$606 million in 2010.

Make a note. That’s profit. Facebook has more cash coming through the door than it has cash going out the door.

Continue Reading

Comments (3)

FREE INVESTMENT REPORT: Why Dividend Stocks Are The Key To Retirement Wealth


In this report discover how dividend stocks can give you income long into retirement — even if stock prices don’t rise.

PLUS you'll get Money Morning every weekday...absolutely free.

Enter your email address below and hit the 'Claim My Free Report' button now.

Privacy Statement
We will collect and handle your personal information in accordance with our Privacy Policy.
You can cancel your subscription at any time

WWD dvd

World War D was billed as ‘the biggest investment summit of the decade’

It didn’t disappoint…


Absolutely mind-blowing beyond my expectations

– D.A.C. Hall


The BEST INFORMATION available,
contrary to mainstream economic reporting.

– L. Sceresini


Exciting, dynamic, passionate, informative, challenging, so professional... Brain-stretching.

– D Finlay


Click here to watch
the brand new Highlights Reel.

Openx pos2

Stock Market Updates

  • ^NDX4066.273-6.904 - -0.17%
  • ^FTSE6813.89+8.09 - +0.12%
  • ^AORD5624.600+3.300 - +0.06%
  • ^AXJO5625.900+1.500 - +0.03%
  • AUDUSD=X0.9338
  • USDJPY=X103.965

Openx pos3

Diggers and Drillers

After three years in the doldrums…

Aussie resource stocks
are now a raging BUY
 
The last time resource stocks traded this low we saw a two and a half year rally that saw them gain 124%...
 
Now they’re getting ready to do it again. Read on to discover why…and three tiny Aussie miners that could explode up many times higher than that in 2014…click here.

Openx pos4

Openx pos5

Openx pos6

Openx pos7

Openx pos8

More Recommended Reading Below...

The Pursuit of Happiness & The Daily Reckoning

  • The Pursuit of Happiness
  • The Daily Reckoning Australia

Many Australian investors are turning to alternatives. Led by the SMSF crowd, investors are piling i [Read More...]

I wanted to know what Joe Hockey would do about the hundreds of millions of dollars the government. [Read More...]

This morning the Australian dollar trading for 93 US cents. It hasn’t managed to regain parity since [Read More...]

The government plans to force internet and telco providers to keep your digital information (metadat [Read More...]

So much money is fleeing China…that it is distorting the global economy, particularly in the art mar [Read More...]

There are many things I don’t know. High on that list is the mystery of Qantas; how does it manage t [Read More...]

The longer we spend in France, the more similarities we see between its economic problems and those [Read More...]

As China continues to slow (possibly sharply), the iron ore price and broader terms of trade will co [Read More...]

Investing in small-caps is the best way that you make money in the stock market. But you should know [Read More...]

Stocks up, growth down. So what has happened in the world economy during the last 10 years to make s [Read More...]