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‘Conventional wisdom’ is perhaps one of the biggest threats to, well, anything.
It’s the lazy-man’s or lazy-woman’s argument.
“Everyone knows house prices always go up.”
“Gold is a hedge against inflation.”
“There’s a housing shortage.”
“The money from Super funds will ensure share prices always go up.”
Or even the best one we’ve heard and laughed at lately is, “Housing is a hedge against inflation.”
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It’s tempting to make this week a ‘Property Week’ in Money Morning.
We weren’t surprised to see the Money Morning mailbag bursting at the seams here at the Old Hat Factory yesterday.
Within minutes of yesterday’s email going out the replies started flooding in.
Perhaps the most remarkable response was from the property bulls.
Look, let’s be fair about it. When we asked on Friday if readers had authentic research to back up the ‘housing shortage’ claim, it was probably the busiest day of the week for property bulls.
After all, there’s all those ‘open for inspections’ to prepare for over the weekend.
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How will the Australian property market look in 2010? If you believe the property experts such as Phil Kelly from OzInvest, then it’s a perfect time to buy property now.
Not just because he thinks you may want a place to live, but because you’ll be doing your bit for your country.
He explains the role, “tax benefits for negative gearing plays in easing the current housing shortage and how it can help ordinary Australians build wealth for a safe and secure retirement.”
You see, when you build a house you’re actually helping to fix the “chronic” housing shortage. And you thought it was just so you had a nice place to live.
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Today your editor planned on tackling superannuation, but two things have happened to delay our coverage until tomorrow. First is the release of the HIA/Commonwealth Bank Housing Affordability index, which I’ll get to in a moment…
And second is due to the number of emails we’ve received on the subject of super over the last couple of days.
When we cover super tomorrow, we’ll draw in other tax-efficient investments. Most of the emails we’ve received from financial planners and accountants have lauded the wonderful tax efficiency of superannuation – which is true. However, it did bring back memories of the first thing your editor ever learned about investing…
More on that tomorrow.
“Top to bottom in the 1970s, house prices measured in gold lost four-fifths of their value all told…”
BEWARE THE CLAMOR to call the bottom in house prices.
Because with a tired predictability, the UK experience of seeing “green shoots” in every new survey says the global bust starting barely two years ago has a long way to run yet.
People who bought UK residential real estate in 1973, for instance, took until 1986 to break-even, on average, after accounting for inflation. Prices then doubled in the last half of the Eighties, before falling again for the next six years running, dropping nearly 40% (inflation-adjusted) and only regaining their peak in 2002.
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