Will Clinton or Trump Send the World to War?

Who are our enemies?

If you read the mainstream news, Russian President Vladimir Putin rings a bell.

ISIS does too…

North Korea.

Perhaps, Iran makes the list…

Who knows? But, arguably, Hilary Clinton (who some claim should be locked up for what they say are questionable business deals) avoids it. Donald Trump, on the other hand, certainly makes the cut.

What has this got to do with commodities?

Let me explain…

Corruption at its highest

First, let’s look at some mainstream news. The New York Post wrote last week,

The largest broadcast networks — CBS, NBC and ABC — and major newspapers like the New York Times and Washington Post have jettisoned all pretence of fair play. Their fierce determination to keep Trump out of the Oval Office has no precedent.

‘Indeed, no foreign enemy, no terror group, no native criminal gang suffers the daily beating that Trump does. The mad mullahs of Iran, who call America the Great Satan and vow to wipe Israel off the map, are treated gently by comparison.’

Most of us know that the US mainstream is owned and paid for by the big banks and politicians. They have an agenda, and their media sells it.

Australia’s mainstream is a bit better. Our journalists still have some credibility. Although, very few journalists — and this is worldwide — have anything good to say about Trump.

  1. Fair enough. The billionaire has made a lot of mistakes…

He’s offended multiple people, races and ethnic groups. And clearly deserves a lot of backlash. But, I’d argue, not as much as he gets. Trump’s said a lot of smart stuff which goes under the radar.

For example, he wants to slash taxes across the board. If that happens, it would ignite a tremendous economic boom.

Yet, despite this positive, and a few others, Trump remains a hothead on stage. The Washington Post reported yesterday,

Arguably worse than his claims of resigned acceptance to the spread of nuclear weapons has been his active support of the further development of such weapons, as well as multiple statements suggesting how he would consider using them.

The journalism is amusing. Remember, Trump wants to befriend Putin. Why would he do that if he wanted to start a war or use nukes?

Here is the cold hard truth: Trump isn’t part of the political establishment. He’s an outsider, and establishment politics hate that! The mainstream is trying its best to sell Clinton, even though her own political background is quite questionable.

Still, November’s election remains a coin flip.

If Trump wins, who knows what will happen. If Hilary wins, watch out…

Hilary has supported every war for the past 30 years. Based on her track record, there’s little doubt that she would support the next war. To understand why, let’s wind back the clock…

Crimea’s confusion

On 18 March 2014, Russia rolled its tanks into Crimea (now part of its territory). At the time, US President Barack Obama condemned the ‘attack’ and called it an invasion. The mainstream supported his rhetoric.

Yet, there was more to the story…

It’s often unreported that Kiev saw bloody riots on the streets almost every day. Facing a civil war, 50% of Ukraine wanted to join the European Union (the west). The other 50% (the east) wanted to pivot towards Russia.

Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine’s former President, was deeply disliked at the time. He was entangled in corruption rumours, allegedly stripping businesses from top to bottom and running his government like a mafia.

Yushchenko had a strong pro-Russian stance, which the West didn’t like.

With Kiev in near bloodshed, and the people after his head, Yushchenko fled to Russia.

Before fleeing across the border, Yushchenko called Putin asking for help. He feared that Crimea — a strong ethnic Russian region — was in trouble. Discussing the story, Reuters reported on March 3, 2014:

Ukraine’s ousted leader Viktor Yanukovich has sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin requesting that he use Russia’s military to restore law and order in Ukraine, Moscow’s U.N. envoy told a stormy meeting of the Security Council on Monday.

Yet, despite the truth and a referendum, Obama still claims that Russia ‘annexed’ Crimea.

Politicians, globally, are out of control…

The path to war

Ukraine’s new President, Petro Poroshenko, has been a total disaster.

He has tried nearly every trick possible to start a war with Russia. Poroshenko recently recommended introducing martial law and a new wave of military mobilisation.

Russia realises that war is inevitable, and is preparing.

When war breaks out, it could easily spread globally. Do you think that either President Trump or Clinton would sit on the sidelines?

That doesn’t seem likely. In that case it makes sense to keep a close watch on geopolitical events in the months and years ahead.

If the worst happens, things could get out of control very quickly indeed.


Jason Stevenson,
Resources Analyst

PS: There’s one simple truth about war. Like it or not, when wars start, commodity prices soar. For instance, in the lead up to the Iraq War in 2003, the Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB index gained 60%. And from March 2003 to 2006, the index gained another 90%. This gain wasn’t all about war, but during war the demand for commodities surges. That creates a strategic opportunity that investors can exploit. For my take on how to play this, go here.

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