Markets Surge, but These Stocks Left Behind — Not for Long…

Markets Surge, but These Stocks Left Behind — Not for Long…

Stock market

What an extraordinary run.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has hit another record high. It’s closed above 19,000 points for the second day in a row.

Less than eight years ago, the Dow traded at a low of 6,469 points.

Today, it’s 194.9% higher.

Amazing. The issue now, is whether these gains will last…or whether this is merely the final blow-off rally before an almighty collapse.

We’ll give you our take below…

Investors often look for reasons why a market moves.

Once they think they’ve found a reason, they’ll figure out if it’s a ‘causal’ or ‘casual’ relationship. In other words, did the market rise because of this (causal), or would it have risen anyway (casual).

Then they look further. They look at the correlation. Simply put, how much of the market’s movement is due to a particular event? Is it the sole reason, or are there other factors?

It can get quite complicated. And different investors will have different views on causal, casual, and correlation.

But in this instance, with this stock rally, there can’t be any doubt. It’s 100% causal. And there’s a 100% correlation: Donald Trump.

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Big-caps out, these ‘caps’ in

Check out the chart of the Dow below, you’ll see the big spike since the US presidential election:


Source: Bloomberg
Click to enlarge

The arrow pinpoints Trump’s win.

It’s not just in the US where markets have bounced. After initially falling on the result, the Aussie S&P/ASX 200 index has surged more than 400 points.

That’s a big move too.

But what isn’t such a big move is the performance of another key stock index, the S&P/ASX Emerging Companies index. This index contains 132 small-cap Aussie stocks.

Since Trump’s win, this index has resumed its downward path. Check out the chart below:


Source: Bloomberg
Click to enlarge

The index initially fell on Trump’s win. The next day, as the US market rebounded, this index followed suit. But since then, it has given back the gains.

The Emerging Companies index is now trading back near the lows immediately following the Trump win.

What does that tell you?

You can read a couple of things from this. First, you could say that these tiny stocks reveal the real view of the market. Investors have piled into the perceived safety of blue-chips, but they aren’t willing to take on extra risk — just in case the Trump win ‘honeymoon’ period comes to an abrupt end.

The second way to look at this is as a sign of opportunity. Investors have bought up all the big-cap stocks as world markets recovered. Meanwhile, they’ve so far ignored the market’s tiny stocks.

.If you’re a speculator, that should get your attention. If the market rally continues, there’s little doubt in our mind that investors will shift towards riskier assets — such as small-caps.

When or if they do, it could create big opportunities for investors who get in now. Remember, blue-chip stocks are relatively high, and the prospects of big dividend increases are fading fast.

If investors want to supplement lost income growth due to stagnating dividend yields, it’s fair to say they could start looking for capital growth instead.

And in our view, when it comes to capital growth, there are few better places to find it than in the tiny end of the market: small-caps.

This could be where you’ll find the market’s next major growth spurt.

Cheers,
Kris

PS: Sam Volkering, our small-cap expert, has recently profiled his top ASX small-cap picks. For details, go here.

Kris Sayce

Kris Sayce

Publisher and Investment Director at Port Phillip Publishing
Kris is never one to pull punches when discussing market developments and economic events that can affect your wealth. He’ll take anyone to task — banks, governments, big business — if he thinks they’re trying to pull a fast one with your money. Kris is also the editor of Tactical Wealth, and Microcap Trader — where he reveals the best opportunities he’s discovered in the markets. If you’d like to more about Kris’ financial world view and investing philosophy then join him on Google+. It's where he shares investment insight, commentary and ideas that he can't always fit into his regular Money Morning essays.
Kris Sayce is the Publisher and Investment Director of Australia’s biggest circulation daily financial email, Money Morning Australia.Kris is a fully accredited advisor in shares, options, warrants and foreign-exchange investments. Kris has close to twenty years’ experience in analysing stocks. He began his career in the biggest wasp’s nest in the financial world — the city of London — as a finance broker back in 1995.
It’s there where he got his ‘baptism of fire’ into the financial markets, specialising in small-cap stock analysis on London’s Alternative Investment Market. This covered everything from Kazakhstani gold miners to toy train companies.After moving to Australia, Kris spent several years at a leading Australian wealth-management company. However he began to realise the finance and brokerage industry was more interested in lining its own pockets with fat fees, commissions and perks —rather than genuinely helping out the private investors they were supposed to be ‘working’ for. So in 2005 Kris started writing for Port Phillip Publishing — a company which was more attuned to his investment outlook. Initially he began writing for the Daily Reckoning Australia— but eventually, took over Money Morning. It’s now read by over 55,000 subscribers each day. Kris will take anyone to task — banks, governments, big business — if he thinks they’re trying to pull a fast one with your money! Whether you agree with him or not, you’ll find his common-sense, thought-provoking arguments well worth a read. To have his investment insights delivered straight to your inbox each day, take out a free subscription to Money Morning here. Kris is also the editor of Tactical Wealth and Microcap Trader where he reveals the best opportunities he’s discovered in the markets that you could profit from. If you’d like to learn about the latest opportunity Kris has uncovered, take a 30-day trial of Tactical Wealth here or Microcap Trader here. Official websites and financial e-letters Kris writes for:

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