What is Happening to NTC’s Share Price?

What does Netcomm Wireless do?

Netcomm Wireless [ASX:AMP] provides a range of connectivity equipment to the telecommunications industry. For example, NTC makes hardware to connect fibre or cable lines from the exchange or telecommunication pits to the home.

What’s happening to NTC’s share price?

NTC’s share price jumped nearly 9% today, after the company announced a $28 million deal to supply the National Broadband Network (NBN) with ‘4-port distribution units’.

The NBN is a ‘fibre to the curb’ network, which means the telecommunication line doesn’t run into individual homes, but rather to the ‘curb’, which is really a name for various points in the neighbourhood. NTC’s equipment is then deployed at these points to help connect the NBN to the home.

As this is an ‘initial order’ the market clearly expects more good news to come.

What now for NTC?

The interesting thing about this story is that the market already knew about it. NTC made the announcement in November 2016. And as you can see in the chart below, the initial response was positive.

Netcomm Wireless ASX NTC

Source: Bigcharts

But the share price started falling again soon after.

Telco stocks have been out of favour lately, as the NBN looks like eating into the profits of many providers. But NTC isn’t really impacted by the competition from the NBN. In fact, as today’s announcement shows, its making money from the NBN.

This should be good news for the stock. But the share price is in a well-defined downtrend. For that reason I’d stay away. Today’s share price rise may be the start of a turnaround, but it’s too early to tell.

In short, NTC’s story is a good one, but the chart is sending a less positive message.

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Greg Canavan
Editor, Money Morning


Greg Canavan is a Feature Editor at Money Morning and Head of Research at Fat Tail Investment Research.

He likes to promote a seemingly weird investment philosophy based on the old adage that ‘ignorance is bliss’.

That is, investing in the Information Age means you have all the information you need at your fingertips. But how useful is this information? Much of it is noise and serves to confuse, rather than inform, investors.

And, through the process of confirmation bias, you tend to read what you already agree with. As a result, you often only think you know that you know what is going on. But, the fact is, you really don’t know. No one does. The world is far too complex to understand.

When you accept this, your newfound ignorance becomes a formidable investment weapon. That’s because you’re not a slave to your emotions and biases.

Greg puts this philosophy into action as the Editor of Crisis & Opportunity. As the name suggests, Greg sees opportunity in a crisis. To find the opportunities, he uses a process called the ‘Fusion Method’, which combines traditional valuation techniques with charting analysis.

Read correctly, a chart contains all the information you need. It contains no opinions or emotion. Combine that with traditional stock analysis and you have a robust stock-selection strategy.

With Greg’s help, you can implement a long-term wealth-building strategy into your financial planning, be better prepared for the financial challenges ahead, and stop making the basic, costly mistakes that most private investors do every time they buy a stock.

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