Not the Best Start for Retail Food Group Share Price

A great investment is one with an adequate payoff and a high degree of certainty. That’s why many investors are always on the hunt for recession proof stocks.

These are companies that provide goods or services which are demanding, regardless of economic conditions. One example might be Retail Food Group Ltd [ASX:RFG].

The company owns various franchises, such as: Crust Pizza, Donut King, Brumby’s Bakery and many others. Who says ‘we can’t afford pizza tonight, the economy is tough’?

Yet despite what would seem like a recession proof stock, RFG was one of the worst performers in 2017.

The stock dropped well over 50%. And their start in 2018 hasn’t been much better.

Another Profit Downgrade

This morning, RFG announced a new Master Franchise Agreement for their UK licences. Due to variation in the licences, RFG said profits for the first half of FY18 will be less than the $22 million they previously stated.

The stock dropped more than 8% this morning to $2.25 per share, but has since recovered to $2.36.

retail food group share price

Source: Google Finance

Is it worth buying RFG now? The stock has dropped significantly. Maybe it’s time to swoop in and buy this bargain?

It really all depends on what you think earnings will do in the future. Yes, the stock has declined significantly. But that’s because earnings have taken a blow.

If we imagine RFG can generate $40 million in profits for FY18, then the stock currently trades at a little over 10-times earnings.

Is RFG worth 10-times earnings? Maybe. The group has manageable debt levels. They produce around $55–60 million in cash from operations, of which around half goes towards maintaining their physical assets.

It definitely won’t be a riskless investment. But one that might pay off over time.


Härje Ronngard,

Junior Analyst, Money Morning

PS: Like in 2017, the highest returns for 2018 will likely be found in the smaller end of town. To help you get started on your hunt for 100% returns, check out these three small-cap stocks trading on the ASX.

All three have huge potential to rocket up in a matter of months.

Harje Ronngard is the lead Editor at Money Morning. With an academic background in finance and investments, Harje knows how simple, yet difficult investing can be. He has worked with a range of assets classes, from futures to equities. But he’s found his niche in equity valuation. There are two questions Harje likes to ask of any investment. What is it worth? And how much does it cost? These two questions alone open up a world of investment opportunities which Harje shares with Money Morning readers 5 days a week.. Harje also contributes his insights in Total Income, headed by income specialist Matt Hibbard. Harje loves cash-rich businesses, so he feels right at home among Matt’s incredibly exciting income plays.

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