Has the Market Been Blindsided?

From Bloomberg:

Stocks slipped on growing concern about the outlook for global trade and U.S. politics. Oil rallied toward a four-year high.

Industrial shares led the S&P 500 Index lower after China warned it won’t meet with American officials unless they stop threatening to expand tariffs, while reports that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein will leave his post also weighed on stocks.’

That last bit is important. I’ve been saying for a while now that political risk in the US is growing. And it’s not going away anytime soon.

The problem is…you won’t get a straight story from the mainstream media (MSM). They have no interest in telling you the truth…only their version of it.

The name Rod Rosenstein might not mean much to you. But he’s important. He’s second in charge at the Department of Justice. He appointed Robert Mueller to investigate alleged Trump/Russian collusion in the 2016 election.

Here’s where it gets interesting. Seriously, this is the best show on earth at the moment and everyone’s watching Game of something, or some D-list celebrity nonsense. (I don’t watch TV — apart from sport — so I couldn’t even say what’s on at the moment!)

Anyway, Rosenstein appointed Muller after our very own Alexander Downer reported a conversation he had with Trump aide George Papadopoulos in London in 2016. Downer was High Commissioner to London at the time. He says that Papa told him the Russians had dirt on Hillary. Papa denies this.

After a Friday tweet from Trump, Downer might just be a tad nervous. More on that in a moment…

Trump was framed for colluding with the Russians

As I said, Downer’s claims kicked off ‘Crossfire Hurricane’, which is the Mueller investigation. A crucial part of the investigation involved applying for a warrant to spy on another Trump aide, Carter Page. To do that, you have to make an application to the FISA court.

This involves submitting solid information to justify the spying. It turns out the investigators didn’t have solid info, so they made it up! They did so by leaking ‘stories’ to the MSM, and then used those stories as evidence in their FISA application…which is illegal. Rosenstein signed off on those docs.

Another angle to the investigation that stinks like a rotting fish in the middle of summer is the use of the ‘Steele Dossier’ as ‘evidence’ of Trump’s collusion with the Russians. It’s named after Christopher Steele, a former MI6 operative and discredited FBI source.

Steele worked in conjunction with a company called Fusion GPS to create the dossier, a company in turn employed by HILLARY CLINTON to come up with dirt on Trump. Steele was on constant contact with Bruce Ohr, number four at the Department of Justice and husband of Nellie Ohr…who worked for FUSION GPS!

Granted, all this is a bit more complex than an episode of I’m a Celebrity…Get Me Out of Here! But when you boil it down, it’s really quite simple. That is, there was a concerted effort by many to frame Trump for colluding with the Russians.

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The aim of doing so (back in 2016, before the election) was as an insurance policy in case he got in. If he did, the collusion would be grounds for impeachment.

The liberal media (with The New York Times and Washington Post being the two largest) were in on the sting as they didn’t support a Trump presidency.

But that wily old fox Trump must’ve had good intel. He knew all along. And just last week, he ordered the declassification of the FISA applications as well as all texts and emails between officials regarding the Russian collusion investigation.

This sent panic throughout Washington. This information is likely to expose countless officials and the media for colluding to remove a sitting President. That sounds like a treasonous offence to me. And the punishment for treason is?

Now can you see why key people are nervous? Now can you see why Rosenstein (as per a recent NYT’s article) suggested wearing a wire to try to implicate Trump in…something?

Now can you see why the Dem’s are doing all they can to stop the Kavanaugh nomination to the Supreme Court?

And as for Australia and Downer, here’s Trump’s tweet, which came through late Friday our time…

MoneyMorning 25-09-18

Source: Twitter
[Click to open new window]

‘Key Allies’ called to ask not to release’?

Those ‘key allies’ are more than likely Australia and the UK. Why would they want Trump not to declassify the info and let the people see for themselves what has been going on? If Trump is guilty of colluding with Russians, all will be revealed.

My guess, and it’s just a wild guess, is because it implicates them in the whole sordid plot. Downer was with Australian intelligence officer Erika Thompson at the supposedly chance meeting with Papa in London. I’m guessing it was a set up from the start. And now they’ve been caught.

How does this political chaos affect the market?

Does Australia’s media report on this?

No. Instead, the Australian Financial Review gives Alexander Downer an op-ed in its weekend edition, where he tells us the state of Australian politics is all our fault.

The bloke’s got more front than Myer!

Leaving aside the disgrace that Australia’s media isn’t telling you what’s going on, what does this all mean?

It’s hard to tell. Stocks trade on information and the information surrounding this saga is extremely confused. There is no dominant narrative. The MSM has a vested interest in NOT letting the truth get out.

When the declassified documents are released though, the truth will have to come out. That may be a wake-up call for the markets in realising just how deep the swamp is in Washington.

So this week is likely to be a big one in US politics. Let’s keep a close eye on the market’s response to these events. If there’s a yawn, it tells you the market doesn’t see politics interfering with the US economic expansion.

But if there’s a big pick up in volatility, it tells you the market has been blindsided and hasn’t priced in political uncertainty at all.


Greg Canavan,
Editor, Crisis & Opportunity

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Greg Canavan is a Feature Editor at Money Morning and Head of Research at Fat Tail Investment Research.

He likes to promote a seemingly weird investment philosophy based on the old adage that ‘ignorance is bliss’.

That is, investing in the Information Age means you have all the information you need at your fingertips. But how useful is this information? Much of it is noise and serves to confuse, rather than inform, investors.

And, through the process of confirmation bias, you tend to read what you already agree with. As a result, you often only think you know that you know what is going on. But, the fact is, you really don’t know. No one does. The world is far too complex to understand.

When you accept this, your newfound ignorance becomes a formidable investment weapon. That’s because you’re not a slave to your emotions and biases.

Greg puts this philosophy into action as the Editor of Crisis & Opportunity. As the name suggests, Greg sees opportunity in a crisis. To find the opportunities, he uses a process called the ‘Fusion Method’, which combines traditional valuation techniques with charting analysis.

Read correctly, a chart contains all the information you need. It contains no opinions or emotion. Combine that with traditional stock analysis and you have a robust stock-selection strategy.

With Greg’s help, you can implement a long-term wealth-building strategy into your financial planning, be better prepared for the financial challenges ahead, and stop making the basic, costly mistakes that most private investors do every time they buy a stock.

To find out more about Greg’s investing style and his financial worldview, take out a free subscription to Money Morning here.

And to discover more about Greg’s ‘ignorance is bliss’ investment strategy and the Fusion Method of investing, take out a 30-day trial to his value investing service Crisis & Opportunity here.

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