Trump has the opportunity to fill more seats on the Fed’s board of Governors than any president since then. His influence goes further than that, however.
The stock market is exhibiting a small-scale bubble formation ready to burst at the first sign of stress. This is not the ‘mother of all bubbles’.
My take is that the Fed is desperate to raise rates before the next recession — so they can cut them again — and will take every opportunity to do so.
The biggest financial story in the world today is not Fed policy or emerging-market debt. The biggest story is the global US dollar shortage.
China is now embroiled in an internal political struggle around the efforts of President Xi to make himself the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong.
Ice-Nine is a freeze of the financial system. It’s something that’s happened before, and it’ll happen again in the next crisis.
Is Trump’s anti-China rhetoric going to trigger another currency war with China? If so, China may jump out ahead and devalue the Chinese yuan.
The tempo of recent crises in 1994, 1998, and 2008 says a crisis is likely soon. A new global financial panic will be one legacy of the Trump administration.
The Yellen–Trump relationship got off to a rocky start during the presidential campaign when Trump proclaimed he would fire Yellen as Fed Chair if elected president.
The Fed is concerned that if another recession started tomorrow (and I’m not saying it will, but it could) it would have no ability to cut rates.