We have been following developments in the E-mini S&P 500 futures closely over the past few weeks, because the technical picture has been quite interesting now that a monthly sell pivot has been confirmed a few months ago.
The current situation is quite explosive because there are now plenty of dominoes lined up beneath the market. What I mean by that is that there will be stop-losses below recent lows that will feed into bigger stop-losses below the 200-day moving average.
Prices collapsed as expected and the low in the E-mini S&P 500 was right in the buy zone of the most recent wave up. Exactly where I showed you prices would bounce from.
The double whammy of a disappointing US Fed commentary after the rate cut and Trump’s new tariffs has caused a weekly sell pivot in the S&P 500. So, until we see a weekly buy pivot the S&P 500 is in weekly downtrend according to my model of price action.
WTI Crude Oil is set up perfectly for more weakness ahead. It is not often you see a set up like this where the weekly and monthly charts have lined up around a very important long-term Point of Control. It takes a long time for the picture to unfold, but once the set-up is complete, the opportunity may not last long.
Uranium prices have been under extreme pressure for many years, but are showing signs of creating a classic reversal pattern...
The cornerstone of an effective trading strategy is defining exactly where you are proven wrong and making sure your stop loss is below that level. You want to be proven wrong as quickly as possible so that your risk/reward on the trade is as high as possible.
With the G20 providing some bullish tailwinds for the S&P 500, it is right on the cusp of a major breakout from an 18-month consolidation period. It’s blue sky above here, so it won’t take much to ignite a rally that will gather momentum as it trades higher.
So it really is decision time for the S&P 500. I’m thinking another false break of the high and short-term sell off back towards 2650 would wrongfoot most market players, so I am ready to position clients for that if we get the sell pivots.
June S&P 500 futures and options expiry is coming at the end of this week. I have found in the past that there is often a squeeze into expiry with a reversal back to the downside soon after. This expiry seems particularly interesting to me because of the underlying technical set up.