How bad will the next crisis be? JPMorgan Chase & Co. has an idea. ‘A decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers sparked a plunge in markets and a raft of emergency measures, strategists at the bank have created a model aimed at gauging the timing and severity of the next financial crisis. And they reckon investors should pencil it in for 2020.
Central banks around the world used stimulus packages to boost their economies and in Australia, it also kept us out of a recession. For this to work, countries had to spend money, which has led to debt.
What if something more fundamental is going on that we don’t really know about yet? This is the scenario I’m leaning towards, and it all comes down to the poor performance of the emerging markets this year.
Let me first say that I am neither pro nor anti Trump. I am simply trying to get to the crux of the issue, and work out what the potential impact on the markets might be. Because it could be BIG.
This morning, Breville Group Limited [ASX: BRG] enjoyed a substantial increase in their stock price, following the release of their financial results ending 30 June 2018. The stock sits at $13.05 a share at time of writing, an increase of $1.41.
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd [ASX:TWE] have seen a rise in their share price after a jump in profits by 34%, with annual profits of $360.3 million. TWE’s share price rose by 4.79% after an earlier slump. They have announced that they will increase dividend payments to 17 cents a share, up 4 cents from last year’s 13.
As you know, Turkey is in the financial market spotlight again. Turkey’s currency plunged again Monday, rattling other vulnerable emerging markets, as a defiant speech from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
It’s not been a great year for the financial advice and asset management business, with scandal after scandal casting a light on dodgy practices. After several class actions and a subsequent hostile media frenzy, this latest news will only further antagonise the market.
QBE Insurance Group Limited’s [ASX:QBE] stock price dropped this morning by 0.15c, sitting at AUD$9.76 at time of writing. Climate change is continuing to challenge the insurance industry, as unpredictable weather events and catastrophes increase. The randomness and intensity is extremely complex to price.
AMP Limited’s [ASX:AMP] stock price dropped by 3.13% this morning, sitting at $3.56 at time of writing. But it hasn’t been a positive year for the financial services company, with steady decline and a major drop since May this year. AMP has fallen by nearly a third since the inquiry, a valuation loss of nearly two billion dollars.