The US Federal Reserve
The US Federal Reserve
trump caracature at the whitehouse
End of the Cycle
global economy in danger zone?

I’m working on the assumption that the US economy will peak in 2018. In fact, the market may well have peaked in January 2018. What evidence do I have for that?

The Tipping Point
Investing in stocks

The US dollar rally has barely paused for breath since getting underway in February. Late last week, it took its toll on commodities. Oil fell nearly 3%. Iron ore fell 3.7%, while aluminium declined 0.7%. What will happen next?

How Do You Feel About Tax Cuts?
Australian tax cuts

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull may be one step closer to passing corporate tax cuts. This comes after One Nation’s Senator, Pauline Hanson, backflipped and announced she would back the company tax plan. Ms Hanson struck a deal with the Turnbull government. But what does this tax cut plan mean for Aussie businesses and workers?

Get Ready to Profit from Higher Rates and a Tech Sell-Off
Stocks sell off, valuation

What’s far more important is how investors reacted to the Fed’s outlook and their decision to increase interest rates. After the rate hike decision, US bond yields spiked, almost clearing 3%. But even before bond yields reach that 4% market, there’s one group of stocks that could fall regardless. Some believe 2018 could be the tipping point for big US tech.

Is This Bull Run Over?
Emerging Markets

Aussie stocks bounced back strongly yesterday, and are set to open flat today, in a sign that the concern over a trade war is overdone. Perhaps Trump’s team have done their homework. Perhaps they now see that a ‘spend as much as you want’ policy in government doesn’t quite gel with ‘let’s reduce our trade deficit’.

The Tug-of-War at the Heart of the US Market
bond market feeling the pinch Gold

Clearly, there has been too much cash in asset markets over the past few years…especially in fixed income markets. But now, the Fed is concerned that this excess cash will show up in consumer price inflation — which is, apparently, a lot worse than asset price inflation. The bond market will feel the biggest impact of this tightening.