What’s far more important is how investors reacted to the Fed’s outlook and their decision to increase interest rates. After the rate hike decision, US bond yields spiked, almost clearing 3%. But even before bond yields reach that 4% market, there’s one group of stocks that could fall regardless. Some believe 2018 could be the tipping point for big US tech.
Aussie stocks bounced back strongly yesterday, and are set to open flat today, in a sign that the concern over a trade war is overdone. Perhaps Trump’s team have done their homework. Perhaps they now see that a ‘spend as much as you want’ policy in government doesn’t quite gel with ‘let’s reduce our trade deficit’.
This is why Grant and others have been saying the 35-year long bond bull market is at an end. The biggest participant in the market (the Fed) is no longer propping up bond prices. Grant believes US 10-year treasury bond yields could reach 4.5%. Such an increase in bond yields would cause millions of investors to flow out of stocks and into bonds.
Clearly, there has been too much cash in asset markets over the past few years…especially in fixed income markets. But now, the Fed is concerned that this excess cash will show up in consumer price inflation — which is, apparently, a lot worse than asset price inflation. The bond market will feel the biggest impact of this tightening.
It was a truly nightmare week on the markets. If you trust the US Fed to be able to smoothly unwind its emergency low-interest rate policy without crashing a market bloated on low rate-driven investment, then you probably aren’t worried. If you don’t have that much faith in the Fed, you might see them as having painted themselves into a corner.
In his big State of the Union address yesterday he laid down the plan - He’s going to increase the debt. A massive US$1.5 trillion infrastructure plan. Throwing good money after bad. Or should I say printing more money to pay off printed money. What to make of it all?
Donald Trump’s long promised tax cuts finally passed. By reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, Trump hopes to encourage US firms to repatriate capital and invest it at home. Tax cuts appease the right wing. Increased jobs and wages appease the working class. Everyone wins, right?
Government officials and agencies have turned a blind eye towards reality. The reality of the booming world of cryptocurrencies.
Why are so many people resistant to change despite the evidence that something is very wrong? Is this a kind of collective Stockholm syndrome?
It’s not a question of if this will happen, it’s a matter of when. Interest rate rises by the Fed preceded every post war recession.