There is a good chance that the long term impact of this royal commission will be a complete dismantling of bank business models. As I pointed out yesterday, banks are already starting to put their funds management businesses up for sale. Next, the rest of the wealth management arms (including the financial planning networks) will probably go too.
US markets bounced back overnight. There was no reason in particular. Probably just that, on consideration, the previous day’s falls might have been a little excessive. Still, the market feels a little bit like the proverbial cat on a hot tin roof. That is, edgy, nervous, and ready to jump if need be. In my view, the risk of a trade war is higher than many people think.
If you want to get into an asset in a bull market instead, take a look at gold. Since bottoming in late 2015, gold has been in a bull market. It’s just that most people haven’t noticed. Early bull markets are tough to identify, in the same way that early bear markets are tough to identify.
Aussie gold stocks have outperformed strongly during the market’s recent convulsions. They are a great hedge in times of increasing economic uncertainty like we’re in now. The bull market conditions are set to continue for gold. The Aussie dollar gold price is approaching $1,750 an ounce, the highest price since mid-2016 and enough to fatten most well run gold miners’ margins.
Newcrest Mining Ltd [ASX:NCM] has increased slightly by 1.44%, this morning. They sit on a market cap of $15.071 billion, while trading at $19.66 a share. Newcrest mining was founded in 1966. They sell a variety of copper and gold while specialising in mining development and exploration. Why the increase? Find out...
While the US dollar index broke down through support in January this year, Gold did not follow. It still had a bit more work to do. In my view, gold’s move higher is just a matter of time. Many gold stocks have already performed strongly. If you want to profit from this potential move, you need to position yourself now.
While there is a lot of uncertainty around markets right now, a good strategy is to go for relative value. Right now, gold reflects good relative value. That is, relative to other asset classes, gold looks the least risky in terms of valuation. There are reasons to believe that gold is readying for a major breakout. If that happens, the price will move higher, very quickly.
Given the headwinds facing gold, it’s held up surprisingly well. The bitcoin phenomenon, bullish equity markets, a strong economy and rising interest rates are all traditionally negative for gold. Gold has had a pretty good year, considering. It’s trending higher and I think there is a good chance of it taking another leg up sooner rather than later.
The recent breakout for gold is bullish. It sets up the precious metals for higher prices longer term. But instead of buying into all the reasons why gold will go higher long term, it’s better to not even know. Ignorance is bliss.
I’ve been doing a lot of work on the sector for the past few months. As a contrarian investment idea, oil is intriguing right now. It’s off the radar of most investors, yet it’s more in demand than ever before.