Australians, individually and collectively, have bet everything on housing. And every year, we double down on that bet. There’s no certainty that 2018 will be the year our housing gamble goes bust. But it would be madness to be certain that it can’t. Aussie property investors in Australia could be in for a rough year.
Just because rates have been at records lows doesn’t mean they can’t go any lower. For one, there’s the Aussie property market to think about. However, by looking at what the big banks are doing, we can glean what the RBA is likely to do in the future.
JB Hi-Fi Limited shares have gained 4.89% today. At time of writing, shares are trading at $28.11 up from $26.80 yesterday. What caused the share price increase?
There’s plenty of momentum to come from the US housing market. This is important because it will drive the US economy. And yet this process is widely underappreciated in the mainstream media. Hence why there’s a persistent sense that the US is close to a recession. I don’t see that happening in the immediate future. The charts aren’t suggesting it.
In today’s article, Ryan looks at the age-old story of bubbles, and why humans keep repeating the same financial mistakes again and again. It was originally published on 21 November, but the warning it contains is just as relevant today.
The further away from ‘normal’ a prediction is, the less our brain is inclined to believe it. That anchoring mechanism is then backed up by a second survival trait. The tendency to stay in the safety of the herd. The result?
Is the Aussie property market ready for a fall? The experts seem to think so. One thing to remember in all this is that the experts have been predicting an Aussie property crash every year now since 2011.
You may have heard of the ‘prisoner’s dilemma’. It’s a standard example in a branch of economics called game theory. Well nowadays, the classical models of economics taught in universities have proven to be poor models of reality. Which brings us to the investor’s dilemma today.
What’s a young person or couple to do, then? Buy into the most inflated asset of all time and hope interest rates stay low enough, long enough for a new generation to come along and keep the Ponzi scheme going? I think Australian society has to come together to start addressing this growing problem.
Real estate business Domain has officially listed today, opening at $3.80 per share. Giving it a market cap just shy $2.2 billion.