Property Market

Forecasting what’s next for the economy is usually considered nearly impossible. But here at Money Morning we don’t let that stop us from trying.

Understanding the underlying forces which drive the economy will go a long way to accessing the insight that few will ever attain.

It is often thought that forecasting the economy includes factors such as the movement of central banks or the stock market. Or even the movement in interest rates and inflation. But while they may play a small part, their impact doesn’t hold weight.

So what’s it based on? The real estate market.

Here at Money Morning, we believe the economic cycle is largely underlined by what happens in the real estate market. And the cycle simply continues to repeat.

Property Markets History

Homer Hoyt’s book published in 1933, One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago, identified the repetition of Chicago’s real estate cycle.

Hoyt’s study of history, which focused on land values, makes a strong case that the economy moves in a clear sequence of around 18–20 year cycles.

As Hoyt notes, real estate cycles are directly related to land price. The cycle repeats regardless of the government in power and their policies.

Since Hoyt’s book was published in 1933, little has changed in the real estate cycle. The cycle just continues to repeat itself.

The Global Financial Crisis wasn’t financial in nature, and so it appears that the reforms initiated after the GFC have only set in motion another real estate cycle.

Instead, we’ve seen a land crisis.

The underlying cause of the crisis may have been ignored, but the real estate cycle looks set to repeat.

What the Experts Think for 2018

The further away from ‘normal’ a prediction is, the less our brain is inclined to believe it. That anchoring mechanism is then backed up by a second survival trait. The tendency to stay in the safety of the herd. The result?

An Investor’s Major Dilemma in Today’s Markets

You may have heard of the ‘prisoner’s dilemma’. It’s a standard example in a branch of economics called game theory. Well nowadays, the classical models of economics taught in universities have proven to be poor models of reality. Which brings us to the investor’s dilemma today.

When Will the Age of Lazy Wealth End?

What’s a young person or couple to do, then? Buy into the most inflated asset of all time and hope interest rates stay low enough, long enough for a new generation to come along and keep the Ponzi scheme going? I think Australian society has to come together to start addressing this growing problem.

Safer Than Houses?

For years, there’s been no more reliable investment class in Australia than residential property in our major cities. But increasingly, it looks like 2017 could be the year that changes.

New Highs Await the Aussie Market

That’s why the market has put in a strong rally recently. It sees a decent economy and a central bank on hold. It’s the classic goldilocks combination that the market loves. Which is why I think you’ll be seeing new highs in 2018.

Can The Australian Stock Market Join the Party?

The boom times are here for everyone it seems…Well, not everyone. The poor old Australian stock market is lagging behind in this period of record highs. In fact, it still needs to rise about 17% to get to the levels of 10 years ago.

When Housing Falls, Australia May Fall With It

Even if you’ve taken your profits out of property and invested them elsewhere, you still can’t afford to ignore this issue. With so many Australians holding mortgages, and the big four banks making up such a large part of our economy, any shock that starts in housing could spread across the entire country.
Money Morning Australia