The Dow gained a whopping 24.8% over the course of 2017. Now, three weeks into the new year, the Dow has already cracked two new 1,000-point milestones. Economic data coming out of the US suggests the economy is robust. With that in mind, what can we expect from US markets this year?
Sirtex Medical Ltd [ASX:SRX] shares increased 12.94% today. Shares are trading at $17.67 at time of writing, up from $15.65 yesterday. What caused the share price rise?
In my mind, hedge funds, on average, find it difficult to beat the market simply because they’re like most people. They give in to irrational behaviour, chase returns and aren’t able to sit still in a group of undervalued investments. So why not remove the human element from the equation?
Shares of Bellamy’s Australia Ltd [ASX:BAL] gained a whopping 21.44% today. Shares were trading at $13.31 at time of writing. What caused the share price increase?
Right now, pass the cash parcel is in full swing, and central banks are only very timidly trying to reduce the size of the parcel. That’s basically why you’ve seen the US stock market rise unimpeded for the past two years. Central banks are behind the curve. There is too much cash in the system given the positive investor psychology that is unfolding.
Tax cuts, rising inflation, a weaker US dollar, strong economic growth…these are all reasons for the markets’ strong rally right now. While you’d have to think nearly all of these positives are priced in, the market just keeps marching higher. Prices have recently gone vertical. That’s not sustainable.
JB Hi-Fi Limited shares have gained 4.89% today. At time of writing, shares are trading at $28.11 up from $26.80 yesterday. What caused the share price increase?
The proviso of this thesis though was that there needed to be ‘an India’ to take up the slack left by China as it stalls. But what if the current slowdown is the bust? And what if China, instead of crashing, recovers and booms over the next few years? A double boost to the global economy, from the two most populous nations in the world.
There’s plenty of momentum to come from the US housing market. This is important because it will drive the US economy. And yet this process is widely underappreciated in the mainstream media. Hence why there’s a persistent sense that the US is close to a recession. I don’t see that happening in the immediate future. The charts aren’t suggesting it.
Computers don’t worry about rationale. They just do what they’re programmed to do, which eventually exacerbates the prevailing trends. But don’t forget, humans program the computers. Human nature is behind all market cycles. It’s just that this cycle is being helped along by the desire to make gains based on unemotional computer generated decisions.