Unfortunately, such quick and easy gains give many investors an unrealistic view of how markets work. This is what changes the psychology of markets and sees money pour into stocks, pushing them higher. This is exactly what happened in crypto markets at the end of last year. This is how bubbles form. Bubbles are a result of belief. Busts are a result of disbelief.
First came the curious. Then as the price rose, the speculators bought in. And in 2017, amidst incredible price rises, massive numbers of new investors bought on the fear of missing out. Those same late-comers have scrambled to get right back out again as the price crashed in January. Their fear of missing out has been transformed into plain old fear.
Google and Facebook have decided to crack down on advertisements that have anything to do with bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Facebook have banned them entirely. One minute you’re running an effective advertising campaign to help educate people about this world-changing opportunity. Then next minute they turn the lights out. A blanket ban is too extreme.
Bitcoin and the wider crypto market has tanked overnight. It was a sea of red across the board this morning for almost every coin. With the majority of the top 50 coins down by over 10%.
During the recent crypto-frenzy, ethereum reached a peak of US$1,420 per token. The current price represents a 14.8% retrace from the high, compared to bitcoin’s 42.1% retrace. Traders are beginning to look at ethereum as the next leader in the cryptocurrency world.
Whether the future will look like this or be entirely different is impossible to know. But imagine. In the crypto future, you would be free to use any currency you like. And a receiver would be free to instantly and freely convert it into any currency they like. There would be no monopoly power here. The possibilities are truly endless.
As a child you are taught things are right or wrong. Black or white. But in the social sciences this is usually wrong. Scientific precision in such a complex field of moving parts it’s impossible to achieve. And it is in this field where you, as an investor, live. Which brings me to Nassim Taleb’s view on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
The price of bitcoin has plummeted over the past week. Dropping to US$9,453 per token, an all-time low for the cryptocurrency since November 2017. What has caused the drop?
If you understand the fractional banking system you'll also know that all the ‘cash’ in the world isn’t actually backed by real cash either. There’s so much more to it than just bitcoin and prices in fiat money. If you only take a superficial view, it’s easy to get misled into thinking it’s some kind of fake, ‘valueless’ mirage.
The price at time of writing is US$11,098. In my view, the price is breaking down. The trend is still favourable, and you could argue that bitcoin is just correcting and consolidating its big recent move. In fact, if you’re financially and emotionally invested in it, I’m guessing that’s the story you’re telling yourself.